Ethiopia earthquakes – skilled allays issues for GERD and Sudan
Amid a swarm of earthquakes and aftershocks which have rocked the Afar, Oromia, and Amhara areas in Ethiopia since December 22 2023, raised fears of a volcanic eruption, and prompted the hasty evacuation of greater than 80,000 folks, Sudanese geoscientists downplay issues that the quakes may affect the essential Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), indicating that the present exercise is much from the dam, which was designed to take seismic occasions under consideration.
The newest reported quake, which measured 8.1, struck at 08:25:54 (UTC) right this moment, with its epicentre east of the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences in Germany confirms.
Today’s quake follows a magnitude 5.8 quake on Saturday, and a 5.5 quake on Friday – beforehand confirmed by the GFZ, the US Geological Survey, and introduced by the Emergency Response Coordination Centre of the European Civil Protection And Humanitarian Aid Operations – which had been accompanied by greater than 30 tremors and aftershocks over the previous week. While no detailed data on the extent of the human and materials losses is offered, Ethiopian authorities are evacuating greater than 80.000 folks from the realm, in fears of volcanic eruptions after smoke got here from vents within the Dofen shield volcano, that rises 450 metres above the Awash plain within the northern Main Ethiopian Rift.
The Ethiopian Red Cross Society carried out a rapid assessment in the affected areas. It is estimated that round 81,750 people have been affected. There are key issues on emergency shelter, meals help and clear water.
Distant rumblings
The present seismic exercise has once more prompted issues in Sudan, particularly with regard to the integrity of the GERD, and the intense repercussions that would happen in Sudan and Egypt, nevertheless, Sudanese geoscientists downplay any present danger, stating that even the closest of the newest swarm of quakes has been greater than 100 kilometres from the GERD.
In an interview with Dabanga – Radio TV Online, Sudanese surveying and earth sciences, engineer Abdelkarim El Amin, assures that the seismically energetic space is much away from the GERD, which is designed to face up to earthquakes, even when full to most capability.
One concern is that the considerably low stage of water within the reservoir lake that was just lately monitored could also be the results of a leak on the lake mattress, which can have an effect on the construction of the reservoir, particularly in gentle of the growing Seismic actions, nevertheless that is unlikely.
“What is important is that the area where the GERD is built is far from the earthquake zone in eastern Ethiopia,” he says, “and epicentre of the latest quakes is about 500 kilometres from the Renaissance Dam.”
El Amin notes: “Dams are designed with a maximum capacity to withstand earthquakes, and through monitoring around the world, we can see that with a few exceptional cases, they generally do not collapse as a result of earthquakes.” He added that the decisive issue is the realm the place the dams are established, the place research are carried out earlier than the dam is constructed of the geological situation of the location. In the case of the GERD, Ethiopia performed two research. Sudan and Egypt had been briefed on the content material of the second research, whereas Addis Ababa declined to reveal the content material of the primary research of the 2 international locations, he says.
In the interview with Dabanga – Radio TV Online, El Amin explains that the GERD definitely impacts your entire surroundings in its space and downstream, nevertheless, “the GERD represents more of a security issue than an engineering or technical one”.
Worst case situation
While El Amin underscores that any collapse of the GERD resulting from seismic exercise is very unlikely, in a hypothetical worst case situation, even a partial failure of the GERD would have an enormous affect on Sudan and Egypt. “The Sudanese land surrounding the Nile is characterized as low plains, which means that water would flood large areas along the Blue Nile basin and the Nile River, and all facilities built on the banks, including three of the main dams in Sudan (Rosaries, Sennar, Meroe), would also be affected. The backflow of water in the White Nile, would cause flooding of large areas stretching from the confluence of the two Niles at Khartoum to the area of dams in the states of Upper Nile and Jonglei in South Sudan.”
El Amin concludes that numerous teachers and the Ministry of Irrigation have prompted a brand new investigation of this difficulty, calling on all our bodies focused on water assets to type a unit of scientists and consultants to deal with all points associated to the GERD and its environmental results within the Nile Basin areas and its tributaries, in a scientific method.
“That this includes all water resources in Sudan: to prepare a comprehensive vision away from the political agenda,” he says.
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