The Consequences of Syria’s Collapse

Over the previous few days, dramatic and unprecedented occasions have unfolded in Syria. In lower than 10 days, Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell to a Sunni-Kurdish alliance—an final result that was neither anticipated nor imagined. This historic shift will not be merely a neighborhood occasion; it’s a regional and international upheaval that can basically change the principles of the sport.

The penalties of Syria’s collapse lengthen far past its borders. First, it marks the definitive finish of the Iran-led “axis of resistance,” which Tehran painstakingly nurtured and funded for many years. Second, it threatens the steadiness of neighboring international locations similar to Jordan and Iraq. Third, it grants Turkey the chance to broaden its regional affect, a job it has lengthy coveted. Fourth, it poses a multifaceted problem to Israel. Finally, the shockwaves might reverberate so far as Ukraine and even destabilize Russia, which has been a staunch backer of Assad’s regime.

With such sudden and sweeping adjustments, conspiracy theories inevitably floor to clarify the surprising. One idea posits a secret deal involving Iran, Russia, the United States, NATO, Turkey, Israel, and key Arab actors. According to this narrative, the Assad regime’s elimination was orchestrated to cripple Hezbollah, drive Iran’s withdrawal from Syria and Lebanon, and curb its help for the Houthis. In return, Russia would permit Syria to come back below Turkish, American, and Israeli affect, whereas NATO would stress Ukraine to conform to a ceasefire with Moscow. Iran, for its half, would freeze its nuclear program for eight years below strict supervision.

While these claims stay speculative, the collapse did align with current setbacks suffered by Iran and its proxies. Israeli strikes on Iranian property and Hezbollah’s current losses accelerated the regime’s demise. Yet, even Western intelligence companies did not foresee the velocity of Assad’s collapse—a second paying homage to the autumn of the Berlin Wall in 1989. For Tehran, the Syrian collapse indicators an existential disaster, as its ambition of becoming a member of the nuclear membership stays unrealized.

For Israel, Syria’s collapse brings each alternatives and vital dangers. Chief amongst these is the potential rise of Sunni jihadist factions alongside its borders within the Golan Heights and southern Syria. While the decline of Shiite affect could restrict Iran’s attain, it creates an influence vacuum that extremist Sunni parts might exploit. Israel will probably reply by strengthening army deployments within the Golan and fascinating Sunni factions in southern Syria, in addition to forming deeper ties with the Druze group in Sweida and the Kurdish forces controlling northeast Syria.

Shortly earlier than Assad’s fall, a reported Russian-Turkish-Iranian settlement in Doha allowed Turkey to safe ensures concerning the safety of minorities and Shiite shrines in alternate for a Syrian military withdrawal from Homs. However, Syria’s future stays unsure. Tensions will probably escalate between pro-Turkish factions and American-aligned Kurdish forces, significantly over management of Syria’s oil fields and agricultural areas. The Kurds will push for a federal entity, as may the Alawites within the coastal areas. If Turkish-backed teams fail to agree on governance, shared management of key cities by armed factions will delay instability, probably for years.

Syria’s speedy unraveling highlights a troubling sample of state collapse throughout the Middle East. Time and once more—whether or not in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, or now Syria—the cycle repeats itself. Regime officers insist on stability, whilst their energy crumbles. Leaders are deposed, establishments are destroyed, and guarantees of restoration comply with, usually with speak of reclaiming looted property. Yet the result’s invariably fragmentation, extended chaos, and international interference.

The repetition of this situation raises an uncomfortable query: Why are regimes within the area so vulnerable to break down? Despite the predictability of those endings, no classes look like discovered. Each time, the result’s the irreversible disintegration of the state, leaving residents to bear the implications.

The fall of Assad’s Syria will not be an remoted incident—it’s a seismic occasion whose repercussions will reshape the Middle East and past. Whether it brings a fragile new order or entrenches additional chaos stays to be seen.

Dr. Hatem Sadek – Professor at Helwan University